Showing posts with label Donald Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Donald Trump. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Follow the money..........

It's still 15 months to the Presidential election, and almost $500 million has been already been raised during the first half of 2015.  By far, this has been the fastest start to a presidential contest in terms of dollars raised. In a departure from previous elections, most of the money is flowing not into the campaigns directly, but into outside groups like “super PACs” and other political organizations that are allowed to raise unlimited amounts of money from wealthy individuals, labor unions and corporations.

In other words, these millions of dollars are coming from a handful of powerful individuals, most with an agenda of their own.

An often stated refrain regarding Donald Trump's popularity thus far in the early election cycle is that Trump is doing so well in the polls because he is not beholden to any kingmakers for cash.  Trump, as did Ross Perot and Mike Bloomberg before him, is using his own money, so doesn't need direct fund raising.  Here is a recent quote from Trump on his fellow candidates going to a Republican retreat sponsored by the Koch brothers:

I wish good luck to all of the Republican candidates that traveled to California to beg for money etc. from the Koch Brothers.
Perhaps they weren't begging, but voters want to know what these candidates are offering in return for these huge piles of cash.

Voters are frustrated that candidates are so frozen when speaking and just dribbling back talking points, that they don't really state what they feel.  Instead, they are simply being cautious to ensure they don't offend any of these big donors.  Trump has successfully tapped into this issue, speaking off the cuff and telling people what he thinks - whether they like it or not.  Bottom line, at least so far, its working.

Image result for donald trump campaign

The Trump impact I believe is best summed by columnist David Brooks:

The times are perfect for Donald Trump. He’s an outsider, which appeals to the alienated. He’s confrontational, which appeals to the frustrated. And, in a unique 21st-century wrinkle, he’s a narcissist who thinks he can solve every problem, which appeals to people who in challenging times don’t feel confident in their understanding of their surroundings and who crave leaders who seem to be.

Why are the non Trump candidates working so hard to say so little?  Because they need the money, and this big money is coming from fewer and fewer.

The NY Times recently ran an article listing 65 individuals who have already given over $1 million to candidates, a year and a half before the election!  This list ranges from Wall Street Executives, to casino owners to film directors.  Some names are recognizable, some are not. 

At this writing, almost half of the money raised so far in the Presidential campaign has been contributed by less than 400 individuals and families.  This top heavy cash grab is without precedent, and all due to the rise of Super PAC's as I have written about in prior posts.

Most candidates simply don't have the wallet to finance their own campaigns, and with the Super PAC's laws as they are, make it irresistible to chase these limited donors.  Why attempt to raise $50K from 20 different potential donors, when you can chase $1 million from a single potential donor.

Simply put, the speed in which these Super PAC's can raise money has allowed candidates to raise enormous campaign war chests in a fraction of the time that it would take candidate to raise similar amounts directly.

As with everything that involves politics and money, there is a potential cost.  As noted above, these small wealthy donors have made today's candidates deeply dependent on this small pool of the richest Americans.  While the concentration of donors is greater on the Republican side, this issues cuts across party lines.

As an examples, 130 donors provided more than half of the money raised by Republican candidates via the Super PACs.  Instead of these campaigns listening to hundreds of people's questions/issues while fund raising, they now only need to address dozens.  Not to pick on Scott Walker from the GOP,  but of the $20 million or so raised by Mr. Walker to date, at least $13.5 million (68%) came from just four donors.   From the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton brought in $15 Million, with nine donors giving at least $1 Million.

Fred Wertheimer, the president of Democracy 21, which favors limits on political money had this to say about the recent Super PAC figures:

The 2016 presidential candidates and their individual candidate super PAC's are wiping out the nation's anti corruption candidate contribution limits.
Unless we have some limits, or rolling back of these Super PAC's, only the super wealthy will have a say in fund raising and politicians ears.  No longer can a candidate rely on grass roots support; they are all feeding from the same trough.


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Wednesday, July 8, 2015

The Donald Trump impact.

No matter if you are a political junkie or not, you can't escape the daily news about Donald Trump during the past few weeks. 

Most of the discussions surrounding Trump prior to these recent controversies revolved around whether people viewed him as a real candidate, or was this just him looking for publicity.

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Well, whichever side you fall on that spectrum, you can't deny He is getting plenty of publicity.  Now, however, one must ask, is this more than He bargained for.

While I don't doubt that Trump doesn't care that his political rivals have, almost in unison, come out against his recent comments regarding Mexico and immigrants.

However, I am not sure He is happy about the rash of business interests that have been impacted.  From Univision, Macy's, and now ESPN and Nascar, this list of companies distancing themselves from Trump continues to grow.

While Trump continues to downplay the overall impact of these recent hits to his bottom line, one has to wonder if He believed his words would have this deep an impact.

Where does Trump go from here?  Does He continue rattling cages and throwing darts, or does He sit back a bit and speak a bit more tame.

Whether you like him or not, it's hard not to watch.

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Is Donald Trump a real candidate?

This is not a post about whether Donald Trump is a good or bad candidate.  This is not a post about if Donald Trump had good or bad policies.  This post is about whether Trump is in this race for the long haul.  Does He really intend to run for President, and not just enjoy the exposure to advance his own business/personal interests?

Let's start with this quote from the Donald last week:

"When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best," he said. "They're sending people that have lots of problems...they're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people."
 

Image result for donald trump

I suspect most of us, including me, agree that this is not the type of wording a Presidential candidate should be using.  Even if you agree with the premise, the packaging and presentation was a bit raw for most of us.

After those quotes (Trump has not backed off those strong comments), a few of His business interests have suffered.  He clothing line was recently dropped from Macy's, and Univision (Spanish/American broadcast network) has severed its ties to Trump.  In other words, while He is getting publicity, his business interests have suffered.

The polls, so far at least, seem to show that He is in fact a real candidate with appeal.  People have responded to his pro business, anti immigration message.  Also, people love the straight talk and being rich enough to ensure He is not going to hold back.

However, it brings us back to the original question; is Trump in this for the long haul?

Despite his strong showings, and I confess to turning up the volume when He is speaking, I suspect Trump will grow tired of this constant monitoring of his every word, all of his business interests (there must be some in China/Mexico), the scrutiny of his business holdings (former bankruptcies), and general digging into his life.

While He is entertaining and perhaps talking about subjects other candidates shy away from, I suspect we should enjoy the Donald while we can.