Follow the money..........

It's still 15 months to the Presidential election, and almost $500 million has been already been raised during the first half of 2015.  By far, this has been the fastest start to a presidential contest in terms of dollars raised. In a departure from previous elections, most of the money is flowing not into the campaigns directly, but into outside groups like “super PACs” and other political organizations that are allowed to raise unlimited amounts of money from wealthy individuals, labor unions and corporations.

In other words, these millions of dollars are coming from a handful of powerful individuals, most with an agenda of their own.

An often stated refrain regarding Donald Trump's popularity thus far in the early election cycle is that Trump is doing so well in the polls because he is not beholden to any kingmakers for cash.  Trump, as did Ross Perot and Mike Bloomberg before him, is using his own money, so doesn't need direct fund raising.  Here is a recent quote from Trump on his fellow candidates going to a Republican retreat sponsored by the Koch brothers:

I wish good luck to all of the Republican candidates that traveled to California to beg for money etc. from the Koch Brothers.

Perhaps they weren't begging, but voters want to know what these candidates are offering in return for these huge piles of cash.

Voters are frustrated that candidates are so frozen when speaking and just dribbling back talking points, that they don't really state what they feel.  Instead, they are simply being cautious to ensure they don't offend any of these big donors.  Trump has successfully tapped into this issue, speaking off the cuff and telling people what he thinks - whether they like it or not.  Bottom line, at least so far, its working.



The Trump impact I believe is best summed by columnist David Brooks:

The times are perfect for Donald Trump. He’s an outsider, which appeals to the alienated. He’s confrontational, which appeals to the frustrated. And, in a unique 21st-century wrinkle, he’s a narcissist who thinks he can solve every problem, which appeals to people who in challenging times don’t feel confident in their understanding of their surroundings and who crave leaders who seem to be.

Why are the non Trump candidates working so hard to say so little?  Because they need the money, and this big money is coming from fewer and fewer.

The NY Times recently ran an article listing 65 individuals who have already given over $1 million to candidates, a year and a half before the election!  This list ranges from Wall Street Executives, to casino owners to film directors.  Some names are recognizable, some are not. 

At this writing, almost half of the money raised so far in the Presidential campaign has been contributed by less than 400 individuals and families.  This top heavy cash grab is without precedent, and all due to the rise of Super PAC's as I have written about in prior posts.

Most candidates simply don't have the wallet to finance their own campaigns, and with the Super PAC's laws as they are, make it irresistible to chase these limited donors.  Why attempt to raise $50K from 20 different potential donors, when you can chase $1 million from a single potential donor.

Simply put, the speed in which these Super PAC's can raise money has allowed candidates to raise enormous campaign war chests in a fraction of the time that it would take candidate to raise similar amounts directly.

As with everything that involves politics and money, there is a potential cost.  As noted above, these small wealthy donors have made today's candidates deeply dependent on this small pool of the richest Americans.  While the concentration of donors is greater on the Republican side, this issues cuts across party lines.

As an examples, 130 donors provided more than half of the money raised by Republican candidates via the Super PACs.  Instead of these campaigns listening to hundreds of people's questions/issues while fund raising, they now only need to address dozens.  Not to pick on Scott Walker from the GOP,  but of the $20 million or so raised by Mr. Walker to date, at least $13.5 million (68%) came from just four donors.   From the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton brought in $15 Million, with nine donors giving at least $1 Million.

Fred Wertheimer, the president of Democracy 21, which favors limits on political money had this to say about the recent Super PAC figures:

The 2016 presidential candidates and their individual candidate super PAC's are wiping out the nation's anti corruption candidate contribution limits.

Unless we have some limits, or rolling back of these Super PAC's, only the super wealthy will have a say in fund raising and politicians ears.  No longer can a candidate rely on grass roots support; they are all feeding from the same trough.

Do you need a college degree to be President?

Scott Walker is a rising star in the Republican Party.  Walker formally announced his candidacy earlier this week, which was expected.  Most pundits agree that Walker will be a leading contender for the Republican nomination. 

 

 Walker is the 47 year old Governor of Wisconsin, where his main claim to fame was his introduction of a budget plan which limited the collective bargaining abilities of most Wisconsin public employees.  Walker faced a huge backlash in Wisconsin from it's public sector, including protests at the Wisconsin Capitol, and survived a recall.  This action, along with tight controls on spending and Walker's push for smaller government has made him a favorite amongst Republican Party Leaders.

 

Since 1993, he has run in 11 races for state legislature, county executive and governor — including the highly unusual recall election in 2012 — and he has won them all.

 

So what's missing on Walker's resume?  A college degree.

 Which brings us back to the original question; in this day and age, when most of us are expected to have a college degree, and most employers demand a degree at a minimum, should that requirement be expected for President's?

Walker attended Marquette University, but dropped out prior to his senior year to join the Red Cross.  A noble gesture for sure, but He never returned to finish.



 Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerberg, to name just a few, never completed degrees and went
on to run hugely complex and successful companies, and they seemed to turn out OK. Abraham Lincoln never finished his degree, and most people believe Abe was the greatest president.  However, most people expect the President to have that degree on his/her resume.

 If Walker were to win in 2016, he’d be the first president in more than 60 years without at least a bachelor’s degree.  The last President without a college degree was Harry Truman.  It's been more than three decades since the country has sent someone to the White House who didn't graduate from an Ivy League School.

While most political pundits are mixed on whether this will become a lingering issue, Walker quickly brushed off questions surrounding the lack of degree.

That’s the kind of elitist, government-knows-best, top-down approach we’ve had for years,” Mr. Walker told Fox News’s Megyn Kelly. “I’d rather have a fighter who’s proven he can take on the big government interests and win.”

Of course, we will need to wait and see if this truly emerges as a big issue for Walker.  My guess is, while people do care and would like President's to be highly educated, most will brush off any hesitations and vote for the candidate they like/trust best.

As in all issues with these campaigns, stay tuned................

Do you know your candidates?

Even for those that aren't following the Presidential campaign (despite it still being 17 months away), we already have 16 candidates that have formally declared, and 6 that most likely will declare soon.  As we have covered in previous posts, most of these candidates are pressed to enter due to fund raising concerns, and by waiting too long, they risk being locked out from large donors and the political cash machine.

So, I thought we would do a list of each candidate, with a thumbnail for each (background, claim to fame, etc.) by party (Republican or Democrat), and see if you are able to match the face to each candidate!

These are listed in no particular order.

Republican candidates that have formally declared:

1.)  Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida, son and younger brother of former Presidents.
2.)  Ted Cruz, currently Junior Senator of Texas, born in Canada.
3.)  Rand Paul, currently Junior Senator from Kentucky, son of former Presidential candidate.
4.)  Marco Rubio, currently Junior Senator from Florida, parents immigrated from Cuba.
5.)  Ben Carson, retired surgeon and author.
6.)  Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard, defeated in California Senate race (2010).
7.)  Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, and Presidential Candidate in 2012.
8.)  Rick Santorum, former Senator of Pennsylvania, and Presidential Candidate in 2012.
9.)  George Pataki, former Governor of New York.
10.)  Lindsay Graham, currently Senior Senator from South Carolina.
11.)  Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas, and Presidential Candidate in 2012.
12.)  Donald Trump, Real Estate and Business Executive, television personality.

Republican candidates that most likely will declare:

13.) Scott Walker, current Governor of Wisconsin.
14.) Chris Christie, current Governor of New Jersey.
15.)  Bobby Jindal, current Governor of Louisiana.
16.)  John Kasich, current Governor of Ohio and former Congressman of Buckeye State.

Democratic Candidates that have formally declared:

17.)  Hillary Clinton, former First Lady and former Junior Senator of New York.
18.)  Bernie Sanders, currently junior Senator from Vermont.
19.)  Lincoln Chafee, former Senator and Governor of Rhode Island.
20.)  Martin O'Malley, former Governor of Maryland.

Democratic Candidates that most likely will declare:

21.)  Jim Webb, former Secretary of Navy and Senator of Virginia.
22.)  Joe Biden, current Vice President and former Senator of Delaware.

Now for the quiz - attempt to match each face with the thumbnail attached: 










If you were able to match 15 or more, you are an ace political student and deserve an A.  12-14 is solid B, and for others, well, there are still 17 months to go so plenty of time to study up!